According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in May 2025 is expected to decline significantly by approximately 16.8% MoM compared to April's national refined bismuth production. After experiencing a rebound and entering a period of overall stability, bismuth production has suddenly and sharply declined again, catching many market participants off guard. However, some market insiders suggest that given the current tight supply of raw materials, it is reasonable for production to stagnate or even decline sharply. Judging from the recent competition for bismuth raw materials in the market, many bismuth raw materials have been sold at high prices, indicating that the tight supply of raw materials has affected the normal operations of many producers. From the perspective of producers' production status, some producers are still in the process of equipment maintenance, and many producers are showing a downward trend in production, leading to a significant decline in the country's overall production compared to April. Looking at the detailed data, among SMM's 24 surveyed entities, almost no producers saw a significant increase in production in May, but 5 producers experienced a significant decline in production, while the production of the remaining producers remained relatively unchanged. Many market participants predict that the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth producers nationwide is unlikely to ease in June, and it is highly likely that production will continue to be affected. It is also highly likely that refined bismuth production will remain stable or continue to decline slightly, and there is also a possibility of another significant drop in production.
Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed national refined bismuth production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, SMM has surveyed a total of 24 refined bismuth producers, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as over 99%.
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